The Padres’ biggest issue this year has been production from the LF and catcher spots, but outside of that, I have 3 proposed changes to help utilize the talent already on the roster.
Change #1: Swap Arraez and Merrill in the order.
The catalyst for this move would be moving Arraez, a career .359 hitter with RISP, behind the Padres’ 3 All-Star bats. With no one on, his OBP is .287 (189th); with runners on, his .302 BA (48th) is much more valuable. In his current position, his chances of coming up with runners on is low. To start the game, Tatis is the only batter ahead of him, and the Padres have a .265 OPS out of the 8 and 9 spots, which is 4th worst in the MLB. Out of the 4 spot, he will have ample opportunity to hit with guys on, as Merrill, Tatis, and Machado all have an OBP above .349. Luis Arraez is a one-tool player, and that one tool is really good and needs to be utilized to its best capabilities. Moving Merrill up to the two spot will also give him more ABs, and since he is the better hitter, that’s not a bad thing either.
Change #2: Xander Bogaerts should change to a Torpedo bat.
Bogaerts’ swing decisions are on par with his career norms while posting his best EVs and sweet spot percentage of his 2020s. The outline for a good season is there, but he is just failing to do any significant damage. His .321 xWOBA points to some potential bad luck, but I think it’s more than that. His barrel percentage is a career low and has been dropping every year since 2021. Torpedo bats were all anyone could talk about to start the year, but it hasn’t been mentioned since. In this case, I think it could be what unlocks the best version of Xander.
In 2024, Anthony Volpe posted a barrel percentage of 3.9%, close to Xander’s 3.6% from this campaign, but after making the switch this season, it’s up near 10%, and his OPS is up 100 points. While I don’t think it’s fair to totally attribute this jump to the bat, other players who have used the bat, like Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson, have also seen a jump in barrel and hard-hit percentage.
Change #3: Yuki Matsui as an opener for Randy Vasquez.
Matsui has not been used in high-leverage situations, only 3.1 innings pitched in those spots. This would allow him to be utilized creatively and face the top of any given team’s order, especially when they have left-handed or switch hitters at the top of the order, given Randy Vasquez has a .391 WOBA against LHH. He is not just a lefty specialist, as his WOBA vs RHH is lower than against LHH.
The Padres have struggled having starters go deep in games, and this may be a way to try and attack that problem. Vasquez has been great the first and second times through the order .294 and .316 WOBA, but that spikes to .421 the third time through. Being able to skip having to face the top a third time could help him work into 6+ innings. For example, in his most recent start, he went 4.2 innings despite a low pitch count when he was cruising. This was due to the next batters being the top of the Dodgers’ order, who have the two best LHH in the MLB. Had Matsui been in to start the game, Vasquez would have been able to face them again, and it would still be the second time through. Then, while he would be facing the bottom of the order a third time, they pose less of a threat than the top of the order, allowing him to more effectively cover 5–6 innings.
All of these changes may be backed up by some numbers, but at the end of the day, these are humans, and being able to adapt to these changes is not a given and should be accounted for. But I think 1 & 2 especially are worth a shot.